对火星轨道变化问题的最后解释

    作者君在作品相关中其实已经解释过这个问题。

    不过仍然有人质疑——“你说得太含糊了”，“火星轨道的变化比你想象要大得多！”

    那好吧，既然作者君的简单解释不够有力，那咱们就看看严肃的东西，反正这本书写到现在，嚷嚷着本书BUG一大堆，用初高中物理在书中挑刺的人也不少。

    以下是文章内容：

    Long-termintegrationsandstabilityofplanetaryorbitsinourSolarsystem

    Abstract

    Wepresenttheresultsofverylong-termnumericalintegrationsofplanetaryorbitalmotionsover109-yrtime-spansincludingallnineplanets.Aquickinspectionofournumericaldatashowsthattheplanetarymotion，atleastinoursimpledynamicalmodel，seemstobequitestableevenoverthisverylongtime-span.Acloserlookatthelowest-frequencyoscillationsusingalow-passfiltershowsusthepotentiallydiffusivecharacterofterrestrialplanetarymotion，especiallythatofMercury.ThebehaviouroftheeccentricityofMercuryinourintegrationsisqualitativelysimilartotheresultsfromJacquesLaskar'ssecularperturbationtheory(e.g.emax～0.35over～±4Gyr).However，therearenoapparentsecularincreasesofeccentricityorinclinationinanyorbitalelementsoftheplanets，whichmayberevealedbystilllonger-termnumericalintegrations.Wehavealsoperformedacoupleoftrialintegrationsincludingmotionsoftheouterfiveplanetsoverthedurationof±5×1010yr.TheresultindicatesthatthethreemajorresonancesintheNeptune–Plutosystemhavebeenmaintainedoverthe1011-yrtime-span.

    1Introduction

    1.1Definitionoftheproblem

    ThequestionofthestabilityofourSolarsystemhasbeendebatedoverseveralhundredyears，sincetheeraofNewton.Theproblemhasattractedmanyfamousmathematiciansovertheyearsandhasplayedacentralroleinthedevelopmentofnon-lineardynamicsandchaostheory.However，wedonotyethaveadefiniteanswertothequestionofwhetherourSolarsystemisstableornot.Thisispartlyaresultofthefactthatthedefinitionoftheterm‘stability’isvaguewhenitisusedinrelationtotheproblemofplanetarymotionintheSolarsystem.Actuallyitisnoteasytogiveaclear，rigorousandphysicallymeaningfuldefinitionofthestabilityofourSolarsystem.

    Amongmanydefinitionsofstability，hereweadopttheHilldefinition(Gladman1993):actuallythisisnotadefinitionofstability，butofinstability.Wedefineasystemasbecomingunstablewhenacloseencounteroccurssomewhereinthesystem，startingfromacertaininitialconfiguration(Chambers，Wetherill&Boss1996;Ito&Tanikawa1999).AsystemisdefinedasexperiencingacloseencounterwhentwobodiesapproachoneanotherwithinanareaofthelargerHillradius.Otherwisethesystemisdefinedasbeingstable.HenceforwardwestatethatourplanetarysystemisdynamicallystableifnocloseencounterhappensduringtheageofourSolarsystem，about±5Gyr.Incidentally，thisdefinitionmaybereplacedbyoneinwhichanoccurrenceofanyorbitalcrossingbetweeneitherofapairofplanetstakesplace.Thisisbecauseweknowfromexperiencethatanorbitalcrossingisverylikelytoleadtoacloseencounterinplanetaryandprotoplanetarysystems(Yoshinaga，Kokubo&Makino1999).OfcoursethisstatementcannotbesimplyappliedtosystemswithstableorbitalresonancessuchastheNeptune–Plutosystem.

    1.2Previousstudiesandaimsofthisresearch

    Inadditiontothevaguenessoftheconceptofstability，theplanetsinourSolarsystemshowacharactertypicalofdynamicalchaos(Sussman&Wisdom1988，1992).Thecauseofthischaoticbehaviourisnowpartlyunderstoodasbeingaresultofresonanceoverlapping(Murray&Holman1999;Lecar，Franklin&Holman2001).However，itwouldrequireintegratingoveranensembleofplanetarysystemsincludingallnineplanetsforaperiodcoveringseveral10Gyrtothoroughlyunderstandthelong-termevolutionofplanetaryorbits，sincechaoticdynamicalsystemsarecharacterizedbytheirstrongdependenceoninitialconditions.

    Fromthatpointofview，manyofthepreviouslong-termnumericalintegrationsincludedonlytheouterfiveplanets(Sussman&Wisdom1988;Kinoshita&Nakai1996).Thisisbecausetheorbitalperiodsoftheouterplanetsaresomuchlongerthanthoseoftheinnerfourplanetsthatitismucheasiertofollowthesystemforagivenintegrationperiod.Atpresent，thelongestnumericalintegrationspublishedinjournalsarethoseofDuncan&Lissauer(1998).Althoughtheirmaintargetwastheeffectofpost-main-sequencesolarmasslossonthestabilityofplanetaryorbits，theyperformedmanyintegrationscoveringupto～1011yroftheorbitalmotionsofthefourjovianplanets.TheinitialorbitalelementsandmassesofplanetsarethesameasthoseofourSolarsysteminDuncan&Lissauer'spaper，buttheydecreasethemassoftheSungraduallyintheirnumericalexperiments.Thisisbecausetheyconsidertheeffectofpost-main-sequencesolarmasslossinthepaper.Consequently，theyfoundthatthecrossingtime-scaleofplanetaryorbits，whichcanbeatypicalindicatoroftheinstabilitytime-scale，isquitesensitivetotherateofmassdecreaseoftheSun.WhenthemassoftheSunisclosetoitspresentvalue，thejovianplanetsremainstableover1010yr，orperhapslonger.Duncan&Lissaueralsoperformedfoursimilarexperimentsontheorbitalmotionofsevenplanets(VenustoNeptune)，whichcoveraspanof～109yr.Theirexperimentsonthesevenplanetsarenotyetcomprehensive，butitseemsthattheterrestrialplanetsalsoremainstableduringtheintegrationperiod，maintainingalmostregularoscillations.

    Ontheotherhand，inhisaccuratesemi-analyticalsecularperturbationtheory(Laskar1988)，Laskarfindsthatlargeandirregularvariationscanappearintheeccentricitiesandinclinationsoftheterrestrialplanets，especiallyofMercuryandMarsonatime-scaleofseveral109yr(Laskar1996).TheresultsofLaskar'ssecularperturbationtheoryshouldbeconfirmedandinvestigatedbyfullynumericalintegrations.

    Inthispaperwepresentpreliminaryresultsofsixlong-termnumericalintegrationsonallnineplanetaryorbits，coveringaspanofseveral109yr，andoftwootherintegrationscoveringaspanof±5×1010yr.Thetotalelapsedtimeforallintegrationsismorethan5yr，usingseveraldedicatedPCsandworkstations.Oneofthefundamentalconclusionsofourlong-termintegrationsisthatSolarsystemplanetarymotionseemstobestableintermsoftheHillstabilitymentionedabove，atleastoveratime-spanof±4Gyr.Actually，inournumericalintegrationsthesystemwasfarmorestablethanwhatisdefinedbytheHillstabilitycriterion:notonlydidnocloseencounterhappenduringtheintegrationperiod，butalsoalltheplanetaryorbitalelementshavebeenconfinedinanarrowregionbothintimeandfrequencydomain，thoughplanetarymotionsarestochastic.Sincethepurposeofthispaperistoexhibitandoverviewtheresultsofourlong-termnumericalintegrations，weshowtypicalexamplefiguresasevidenceoftheverylong-termstabilityofSolarsystemplanetarymotion.Forreaderswhohavemorespecificanddeeperinterestsinournumericalresults，wehavepreparedawebpage(access)，whereweshowraworbitalelements，theirlow-passfilteredresults，variationofDelaunayelementsandangularmomentumdeficit，andresultsofoursimpletime–frequencyanalysisonallofourintegrations.

    InSection2webrieflyexplainourdynamicalmodel，numericalmethodandinitialconditionsusedinourintegrations.Section3isdevotedtoadescriptionofthequickresultsofthenumericalintegrations.Verylong-termstabilityofSolarsystemplanetarymotionisapparentbothinplanetarypositionsandorbitalelements.Aroughestimationofnumericalerrorsisalsogiven.Section4goesontoadiscussionofthelongest-termvariationofplanetaryorbitsusingalow-passfilterandincludesadiscussionofangularmomentumdeficit.InSection5，wepresentasetofnumericalintegrationsfortheouterfiveplanetsthatspans±5×1010yr.InSection6wealsodiscussthelong-termstabilityoftheplanetarymotionanditspossiblecause.

    2Descriptionofthenumericalintegrations

    （本部分涉及比较复杂的积分计算，作者君就不贴上来了，贴上来了起点也不一定能成功显示。）

    2.3Numericalmethod

    Weutilizeasecond-orderWisdom–Holmansymplecticmapasourmainintegrationmethod(Wisdom&Holman1991;Kinoshita，Yoshida&Nakai1991)withaspecialstart-upproceduretoreducethetruncationerrorofanglevariables，‘warmstart’(Saha&Tremaine1992，1994).

    Thestepsizeforthenumericalintegrationsis8dthroughoutallintegrationsofthenineplanets(N±1，2，3)，whichisabout1/11oftheorbitalperiodoftheinnermostplanet(Mercury).Asforthedeterminationofstepsize，wepartlyfollowthepreviousnumericalintegrationofallnineplanetsinSussman&Wisdom(1988，7.2d)andSaha&Tremaine(1994，225/32d).Weroundedthedecimalpartofthetheirstepsizesto8tomakethestepsizeamultipleof2inordertoreducetheaccumulationofround-offerrorinthecomputationprocesses.Inrelationtothis，Wisdom&Holman(1991)performednumericalintegrationsoftheouterfiveplanetaryorbitsusingthesymplecticmapwithastepsizeof400d，1/10.83oftheorbitalperiodofJupiter.Theirresultseemstobeaccurateenough，whichpartlyjustifiesourmethodofdeterminingthestepsize.However，sincetheeccentricityofJupiter(～0.05)ismuchsmallerthanthatofMercury(～0.2)，weneedsomecarewhenwecomparetheseintegrationssimplyintermsofstepsizes.

    Intheintegrationoftheouterfiveplanets(F±)，wefixedthestepsizeat400d.

    WeadoptGauss'fandgfunctionsinthesymplecticmaptogetherwiththethird-orderHalleymethod(Danby1992)asasolverforKeplerequations.ThenumberofmaximumiterationswesetinHalley'smethodis15，buttheyneverreachedthemaximuminanyofourintegrations.

    Theintervalofthedataoutputis200000d(～547yr)forthecalculationsofallnineplanets(N±1，2，3)，andabout8000000d(～21903yr)fortheintegrationoftheouterfiveplanets(F±).

    Althoughnooutputfilteringwasdonewhenthenumericalintegrationswereinprocess，weappliedalow-passfiltertotheraworbitaldataafterwehadcompletedallthecalculations.SeeSection4.1formoredetail.

    2.4Errorestimation

    2.4.1Relativeerrorsintotalenergyandangularmomentum

    Accordingtooneofthebasicpropertiesofsymplecticintegrators，whichconservethephysicallyconservativequantitieswell(totalorbitalenergyandangularmomentum)，ourlong-termnumericalintegrationsseemtohavebeenperformedwithverysmallerrors.Theaveragedrelativeerrorsoftotalenergy(～10?9)andoftotalangularmomentum(～10?11)haveremainednearlyconstantthroughouttheintegrationperiod(Fig.1).Thespecialstartupprocedure，warmstart，wouldhavereducedtheaveragedrelativeerrorintotalenergybyaboutoneorderofmagnitudeormore.

    RelativenumericalerrorofthetotalangularmomentumδA/A0andthetotalenergyδE/E0inournumericalintegrationsN±1，2，3，whereδEandδAaretheabsolutechangeofthetotalenergyandtotalangularmomentum，respectively，andE0andA0aretheirinitialvalues.ThehorizontalunitisGyr.

    Notethatdifferentoperatingsystems，differentmathematicallibraries，anddifferenthardwarearchitecturesresultindifferentnumericalerrors，throughthevariationsinround-offerrorhandlingandnumericalalgorithms.IntheupperpanelofFig.1，wecanrecognizethissituationinthesecularnumericalerrorinthetotalangularmomentum，whichshouldberigorouslypreserveduptomachine-εprecision.

    2.4.2Errorinplanetarylongitudes

    SincethesymplecticmapspreservetotalenergyandtotalangularmomentumofN-bodydynamicalsystemsinherentlywell，thedegreeoftheirpreservationmaynotbeagoodmeasureoftheaccuracyofnumericalintegrations，especiallyasameasureofthepositionalerrorofplanets，i.e.theerrorinplanetarylongitudes.Toestimatethenumericalerrorintheplanetarylongitudes，weperformedthefollowingprocedures.Wecomparedtheresultofourmainlong-termintegrationswithsometestintegrations，whichspanmuchshorterperiodsbutwithmuchhigheraccuracythanthemainintegrations.Forthispurpose，weperformedamuchmoreaccurateintegrationwithastepsizeof0.125d(1/64ofthemainintegrations)spanning3×105yr，startingwiththesameinitialconditionsasintheN?1integration.Weconsiderthatthistestintegrationprovidesuswitha‘pseudo-true’solutionofplanetaryorbitalevolution.Next，wecomparethetestintegrationwiththemainintegration，N?1.Fortheperiodof3×105yr，weseeadifferenceinmeananomaliesoftheEarthbetweenthetwointegrationsof～0.52°(inthecaseoftheN?1integration).Thisdifferencecanbeextrapolatedtothevalue～8700°，about25rotationsofEarthafter5Gyr，sincetheerroroflongitudesincreaseslinearlywithtimeinthesymplecticmap.Similarly，thelongitudeerrorofPlutocanbeestimatedas～12°.ThisvalueforPlutoismuchbetterthantheresultinKinoshita&Nakai(1996)wherethedifferenceisestimatedas～60°.

    3Numericalresults–I.Glanceattherawdata

    Inthissectionwebrieflyreviewthelong-termstabilityofplanetaryorbitalmotionthroughsomesnapshotsofrawnumericaldata.Theorbitalmotionofplanetsindicateslong-termstabilityinallofournumericalintegrations:noorbitalcrossingsnorcloseencountersbetweenanypairofplanetstookplace.

    3.1Generaldescriptionofthestabilityofplanetaryorbits

    First，webrieflylookatthegeneralcharacterofthelong-termstabilityofplanetaryorbits.Ourinterestherefocusesparticularlyontheinnerfourterrestrialplanetsforwhichtheorbitaltime-scalesaremuchshorterthanthoseoftheouterfiveplanets.AswecanseeclearlyfromtheplanarorbitalconfigurationsshowninFigs2and3，orbitalpositionsoftheterrestrialplanetsdifferlittlebetweentheinitialandfinalpartofeachnumericalintegration，whichspansseveralGyr.Thesolidlinesdenotingthepresentorbitsoftheplanetsliealmostwithintheswarmofdotseveninthefinalpartofintegrations(b)and(d).Thisindicatesthatthroughouttheentireintegrationperiodthealmostregularvariationsofplanetaryorbitalmotionremainnearlythesameastheyareatpresent.

    Verticalviewofthefourinnerplanetaryorbits(fromthez-axisdirection)attheinitialandfinalpartsoftheintegrationsN±1.Theaxesunitsareau.Thexy-planeissettotheinvariantplaneofSolarsystemtotalangularmomentum.(a)TheinitialpartofN 1(t=0to0.0547×109yr).(b)ThefinalpartofN 1(t=4.9339×108to4.9886×109yr).(c)TheinitialpartofN?1(t=0to?0.0547×109yr).(d)ThefinalpartofN?1(t=?3.9180×109to?3.9727×109yr).Ineachpanel，atotalof23684pointsareplottedwithanintervalofabout2190yrover5.47×107yr.Solidlinesineachpaneldenotethepresentorbitsofthefourterrestrialplanets(takenfromDE245).

    ThevariationofeccentricitiesandorbitalinclinationsfortheinnerfourplanetsintheinitialandfinalpartoftheintegrationN 1isshowninFig.4.Asexpected，thecharacterofthevariationofplanetaryorbitalelementsdoesnotdiffersignificantlybetweentheinitialandfinalpartofeachintegration，atleastforVenus，EarthandMars.T